Using a design charrette and state of the art coastal modeling to support local government adaptation to sea level rise

The majority of the Town of La Conner sits at an elevation (MLLW) of 8-13 feet where over the last number of years Town staff have gone from seeing the baseboards of their overwater business district being reached once or twice every four to five years to being reached four to five times a year. These high water events come at great expense to the Town and leave the Town regularly just shy of a major disaster. The Town of La Conner partnered with the Skagit Climate Science Consortium (including USGS, UW Climate Impacts Group and Western Washington University) and CollinsWoerman to use state of the art modeling of tides, storm surge and sea level rise coupled with an innovative design charrette approach to begin a conversation with the Planning Commission, Town Council, town residents and business owners. The results of the charrette are now feeding into their Comprehensive Plan update process and will also inform a new Capital Facilities Plan. In addition, the conversations stimulated by the design charrette mark the beginning of forging a new vision for this coastal town by its inhabitants. Town leadership and others are turning away from the current paradigm of resistance and leaning into accepting seas. With this new thinking they are exploring how to accommodate these kinds of changes more creatively and with less environmental impact. Thus, the La Conner Design Charrette model and the new scientific information utilized can serve as an example for how others in the Salish Sea can approach understanding coastal changes and create constructive conversations about adaptation in a rapidly changing world

Guidelines for mapping sea level rise and uncertainty

Sea level rise (SLR) due to anthropogenic global warming will affect coastlines throughout the Salish Sea, but will have particular impacts in places such as estuaries and cities, where there is significant built environment close to sea level (e.g., Tacoma Tideflats/Port of Tacoma). Projections for SLR in the Salish Sea range from 6” to 6’ by the year 2100, with a mean projection of 2’. This uncertainty is challenging for planners and managers who wish to incorporate SLR projections into their planning processes. A team of researchers at the UW Climate Impacts Group (CIG), Washington Sea Grant (WSG), University of Oregon, and USGS are developing a new set of probabilistic SLR projections for as part of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project (WCRP). However, the WCRP project does not include plans to develop maps of changing sea level for the state. In response to this, EPA has provided funding (through the National Estuarine Program, NEP) to develop guidelines so that GIS staff members can produce maps for their areas of focus. In addition to the large range among projections, mapping sea level is challenging because of different reference datasets for sea level and land elevation, biases in elevation surveys, and other technical issues. The purpose of this work is to provide guidance for addressing these issues when possible, and awareness of potential sources of error where these currently cannot be addressed. We are working with two local partners as pilot projects for this mapping: the City of Tacoma and Island County. The goal of this work is to build and support local capacity for using and applying sea level rise projections -- both within the case study communities and beyond

Climate robust culvert design: probabilistic estimates of fish passage impediments

*** This abstract is for a Snapshot (5-min) presentation. *** Many Washington State culverts are currently inadequate for fish passage. Apart from a few special cases, the standard for sizing culverts in Washington State is based on a simple linear function of bankfull width (BFW). This reflects a geomorphic approach to culvert design that can be applied across a large range of situations (Barnard et al. 2013, 2015). Future changes in BFW have previously been estimated by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) (Wilhere et al. 2016), by estimating the percent change in BFW derived from projected changes in runoff. This percent change can then be applied to direct observations of channel geometry. The main purpose of this talk is to present a novel new prototype for sizing culverts to account for the effects of climate change. The tool allows a user to enter some basic details about a culvert, choose a proposed design width, and evaluate the likelihood that it will fail to provide fish passage over a particular design lifetime. Likelihoods are estimated using a Monte Carlo approach, resulting in a probability distribution of future bankfull width. These probabilities will be used to assess the likelihood of culvert failure for different choices about how to size it. Since probabilities cannot be assigned to greenhouse gas scenarios, separate probabilities will be assessed for each greenhouse gas scenario, and likelihood estimates are produced for a given design lifetime. The talk will also include results from a recent evaluation of the climate and streamflow data used as the basis of the WDFW report. The work was funded by the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community (SITC) via the Skagit Climate Science Consortium (SC2)

Integrated floodplain management in Washington: How can we make it more resilient?

Floodplains are home to a wide range of economic, cultural, and natural resources. Although there is a strong desire to include climate change into these planning efforts, very little guidance has been developed to help incorporate climate impacts into planning and design. This is further complicated by weak or non-existent coordination among the various agencies, jurisdictions, and interests that have a stake in floodplain management. This talk will describe a recent assessment – from the perspective of agency-level flood risk managers – of ways to better integrate climate change in floodplain management. The work was focused on the Washington State Silver Jackets (WA SJ), an inter-agency group aimed at coordinating among flood risk management agencies: FEMA, Army Corps, USGS, National Weather Service, and the Washington State Departments of Ecology, Transportation, and the Emergency Management Division. Based on our findings, we developed a climate resilience and flood risk management workplan focused on the following five themes: (1) Improved projections of future flood impacts, (2) Resources to support local planners, (3) Improved coordination among agencies, scientists, and local floodplain managers, (4) Improved public engagement, and (5) Streamlined planning processes. Specific workplan actions were prioritized by the WA SJ team at a workshop in early June 2017, and the group is already taking action to fund and begin work on these priorities. Ultimately, the goal of this work is to widen the community of practice around climate-resilient integrated floodplain management through strengthened connections between agencies and locals, increased capacity, and improved technical resources for decision-makers

Providing modeling tools on extreme events of climate change to Puget Sound managers

As climate change becomes a reality for the management of Puget Sound, water resource and fisheries managers should consider incorporating predictions and outcomes of future climate drivers into their long-range plans and daily operations. Modeling tools that focus on climate impacts and predictions show that extreme events are more often responsible for large impacts than the long-term press of climate change. Working with water resource and fisheries managers in the Dungeness and Skagit watersheds, this project uses outputs of existing climate and estuarine models to define thresholds and metrics associated with extreme climate-driven events that are of importance to the resource managers. Managers from the Dungeness and Skagit basins were brought together to assist with defining information needs for sustainable fish habitat and human water uses. The resource managers participating in the project include municipal waste water treatment operators and planners, fisheries managers, agricultural practitioners and conservation district staff, flood control specialists, and others. The information needs identified by the planners, based on the climate model outputs, include better predictions for low stream flows, stream temperature, extent of salinity intrusion into tidal rivers, and timing of extreme events that fall outside the historical norm. The project is developing a decision-support system to meet these needs. The metrics used to drive the decision-support system are derived from model outputs, driven by resource management needs. The information needs, metrics derived from existing models, and the draft decision-support system will be presented. The research team also seeks to use the project to define improved communication pathways between the scientific community and local managers

Modeling wind-induced waves in the Salish Sea

There have been on-going efforts for increasing coastal resilience to the risk of coastal inundation as a result of sea-level rise in Washington. Accurate coastal risk projection depends on detailed and accurate information of sea level rise, including waves and storm surge induced by windstorms. This paper presents a modeling study simulating wind-induced waves in the Salish Sea. A nested-grid modeling approach was used to provide accurate and robust model simulations at various scales. The NOAA NCEP’s WaveWatch III (WW3) model is configured at global and regional scales with wind forcing obtained from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). For the Salish Sea and Washington outer coast, a high-resolution wave model is implemented with the Unstructured Simulating WAve Nearshore (UnSWAN) model. The Salish Sea wave model is driven by spectral open boundary conditions from the nested regional WW3 models. To further improve the model accuracy inside the Salish Sea, sea surface winds were obtained from a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) historical model simulation covering the entire west coast at a resolution of 6-km resolution. These were used to drive the Salish Sea UnSWAN model. Comparisons of model results with observed wave data at available buoy stations indicated that the model successfully reproduced the wave climates in the Salish Sea. Wave characteristics and exposure areas of large waves in the Salish Sea were analyzed based on model results simulated from 2011 to 2015

A multiple-methods vertical land movement analysis and its integration into probabilistic sea level rise projections for coastal Washington

In order to support climate change planning and adaptation at the community scale, climate projections should ideally be down-scaled, and also provide meaningful representations of uncertainty. As part of the NOAA-funded Washington Coastal Resilience Project, our team developed new sea level projections for Washington State that feature two innovations. First, the projections include an assessment of the likelihood of occurrence of different sea level magnitudes at decadal intervals through 2150. Next, sea level is projected in a relative framework using vertical land movement information. This presentation will describe the development of the most comprehensive database of vertical land movement observations, along with their uncertainties, ever assembled for coastal Washington State. Vertical land movement observations are derived from multiple sources, including 6 different continuous GPS databases, a single-differencing approach using tide-gauge data, and repeat leveling of survey control monuments near highways. The observations were coupled with a tectonic deformation model of the Cascadia Subduction Zone to develop a best-fit surface for all of coastal Washington, along with its associated uncertainty. The best fit surface and its uncertainty was principally guided by the observations, but in locations with sparse data tectonic deformation model dominated the fit of the surface. The results suggest considerable variability in coastal vertical land movement in coastal Washington State. Rates can vary by \u3e 3 mm/yr over spatial scales of only 10s of kms. Uncertainties also vary, ranging from less then 0.5 mm/yr in places with dense observational data, to \u3e2 mm/yr along parts of the coast of Washington and parts of northern Puget Sound. Using a Monte Carlo approach, vertical land movement estimates and their uncertainties are integrated into probabilistic absolute sea level projections. Then, relative sea level projections are derived at high resolution along Washington\u27s coast. These relative projections are also presented in a probabilistic format, and take into account the uncertainty in sea level projections and the uncertainty in the vertical land movement estimates. The variability in vertical land movement translates into spatial differences in projected relative sea level change of ~0.3 m by 2100. Coastal locations in Washington State with the highest rates of uplift are assessed to have, as a best estimate (i.e. median projection), a relative sea level by 2100 of ~0.4 m relative to contemporary sea level. By contrast the best estimate of relative sea level 2100 at locations with land subsidence may exceed ~0.7 m relative to contemporary sea level

Climate Change Predicted to Shift Wolverine Distributions, Connectivity, and Dispersal Corridors

Boreal species sensitive to the timing and duration of snow cover are particularly vulnerable to global climate change. Recent work has shown a link between wolverine (Gulo gulo) habitat and persistent spring snow cover through 15 May, the approximate end of the wolverine’s reproductive denning period. We modeled the distribution of snow cover within the Columbia, Upper Missouri, and Upper Colorado River Basins using a downscaled ensemble climate model. The ensemble model was based on the arithmetic mean of 10 global climate models (GCMs) that best fit historical climate trends and patterns within these three basins. Snow cover was estimated from resulting downscaled temperature and precipitation patterns using a hydrologic model. We bracketed our ensemble model predictions by analyzing warm (miroc 3.2) and cool (pcm1) downscaled GCMs. Because Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based snow cover relationships were analyzed at much finer grain than downscaled GCM output, we conducted a second analysis based on MODIS-based snow cover that persisted through 29 May, simulating the onset of spring two weeks earlier in the year. Based on the downscaled ensemble model, 67% of predicted spring snow cover will persist within the study area through 2030–2059, and 37% through 2070–2099. Estimated snow cover for the ensemble model during the period 2070– 2099 was similar to persistent MODIS snow cover through 29 May. Losses in snow cover were greatest at the southern periphery of the study area (Oregon, Utah, and New Mexico, USA) and least in British Columbia, Canada. Contiguous areas of spring snow cover become smaller and more isolated over time, but large (.1000 km2) contiguous areas of wolverine habitat are predicted to persist within the study area throughout the 21st century for all projections. Areas that retain snow cover throughout the 21st century are British Columbia, north-central Washington, northwestern Montana, and the Greater Yellowstone Area. By the late 21st century, dispersal modeling indicates that habitat isolation at or above levels associated with genetic isolation of wolverine populations becomes widespread. Overall, we expect wolverine habitat to persist throughout the species range at least for the first half of the 21st century, but populations will likely become smaller and more isolated

Patient Characteristics and Preferences Regarding Anticoagulant Treatment in Venous Thromboembolic Disease

Background: Anticoagulants are the recommended treatment for venous thromboembolic disease (VTE). The mode of anticoagulant administration may influence compliance, and therefore the effectiveness of the treatment. Unlike in atrial fibrillation or cancer-associated thrombosis, there is only limited data on patient preferences regarding the choice of anticoagulation in VTE. This study aims to evaluate patient preferences regarding anticoagulants in terms of administration: types (oral or injectable treatment) and number of doses or injections per day.Patients and Methods: This is a national survey through a questionnaire sent by e-mail to 1936 French vascular physicians between February and April 2019. They recorded the responses for each patient admitted for VTE.Results: Three hundred and eleven (response rate of 16%) of the 1936 contacted physicians responded for 364 patients. Among these, there were 167 fully completed questionnaires. Most patients (63%) express concerns about VTE and prefer oral treatment (81.5%), justified by the ease of administration (74%) and a fear of the injections (22%). When patients were taking more than three oral treatments they statistically chose injectable treatment more often (54%) than oral treatment (25%, p = 0.002). Patients who chose injectable treatment were also older (70 ± 16 vs. 58 ± 17 years old, p = 0.001). There was no statistically difference in anticoagulation preference according to gender or to the expected duration of treatment (6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months or unlimited). When oral treatment was preferred (81%), most chose oral treatment without dose adjustment and biomonitoring (74.3%). Among them, very few (5.8%) preferred a twice-daily intake.Conclusion: Patient preference in terms of anticoagulant treatment in VTE disease is in favor of oral treatment without adjustment or biomonitoring and with once-daily intake. When an injectable treatment is chosen, a prolonged duration of treatment does not seem to be a constraint for the patient.Clinical Trial Registration:ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier [NCT03889457]

Assessing harmful algal bloom risk in Puget Sound: a coupled modeling-data analysis approach

The increased frequency, duration and geographic extent of toxic Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound presents new challenges of how to best allocate resources available for toxin monitoring of shellfish in order to protect human health. Monitoring plans are typically based on shellfish toxicity patterns from the recent past; however, the increasing trend in Alexandrium blooms means that managers are chasing a moving target. With projected future changes in global and regional climate, the risk of toxic Alexandrium blooms is expected to increase. Through funding from NOAA’s Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications Program, we are developing a harmful algal bloom (HAB) risk index that will provide another source of information to the Washington State Department of Health (WDOH) and local health jurisdictions for allocating paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) monitoring resources in the Sound. The HAB risk index is being developed from existing modeling capabilities and six years of year-round PSP toxin data in mussels collected by the WDOH. Climate/meteorological data produced by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, was used to drive the Puget Sound hydrologic and coastal hydrodynamic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Temperature and salinity output from the modeling framework provided input to an Alexandrium growth rate model developed by the Puget Sound Alexandrium Harmful Algal Bloom (PS-AHAB) program. Output from these models was calculated for spatially-explicit WDOH biotoxin closure zones. Statistical correlations between model outputs were examined for trends related to initiation of biotoxin zone closures and changes in shellfish PSP toxin levels. These relationships are being used to develop a risk index that can inform decisions about resource allocation for PSP monitoring in the future at the county, regional, and state level. Changes in risk factors based on a future climate scenario are also being examined. Results of the modeled data and development of the risk index will be presented at the conference